Macro charting interesting data

April 2017

Topics

An Operative Definition of Stagflation
Houseless in America
Wilshire 25000
Men Working
Capacity Utilization
Mortgage Rates
The Ministry of Truth
Labor Share Rally
Wilshire 5000 to GDP ratio
Stocks and Bonds Oscillator update
Vexing Volatility
Quits and Hires
Uncorrelating Russell update
Equity Risk Premium, part 4
Equity Risk Premium, part 3
Equity Risk Premium, part 2
Equity Risk Premium, part 1
Fed Valuations
1999 Party
The New Normal: Cognitive Dissonance
Industrial Production
Leading Index of the US
Car Sales


Details

An Operative Definition of Stagflation

Stagflation: When prices rise faster than the overall economy. Here's an Operative Definition. #stagflation pic.twitter.com/j7Tsoqdela

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 29, 2017

Houseless in America

Houseless in America: Instead of The Housing Recovery, we should call this The Renting Recovery pic.twitter.com/vEowPA5zpC

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 28, 2017

Wilshire 25000

In 2015 the Wilshire Index petered out at 22500. Probably prudent to keep an eye on 25000 now. pic.twitter.com/ZAOpNnxNFx

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 27, 2017

Men Working

For working aged men, improving to 1982 levels is not really improvement#MenWithoutWork pic.twitter.com/2NDpWCAxTq

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 26, 2017

Capacity Utilization

The 2016 Capacity Utilization recovery is unprecedented. Was it just car-loan and car-incentive euphoria, or something more permanent? pic.twitter.com/Q6QYbce2oG

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 26, 2017

Mortgage Rates

As long as mortgage rates go to zero, we'll have no problems. pic.twitter.com/eDe6OXoo3X

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 25, 2017

The Ministry of Truth

Orwell would be proud of our Ministry of Truth.

Here's the US Leading Index before and after a new formula change.https://t.co/S05A6Luim0 pic.twitter.com/DUruvsnGG4

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 23, 2017

Labor Share Rally

Labor Share has been rallying, however its chart is the perfect example of pigs get fat, hogs get butchered. pic.twitter.com/d5egoK9KTb

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 21, 2017

Wilshire 5000 to GDP ratio

Up to the minute chart for that Paul Tudor Jones CNBC article today...https://t.co/Y7qfRIvQam@CNBC#Wilshire5000 pic.twitter.com/5Ei49eTvLh

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 21, 2017

Stocks and Bonds Oscillator update

The Stock vs Bond oscillator is continuing to say what it said in Marchhttps://t.co/Fg4Lrv2NF7 pic.twitter.com/ajVBQ0CZr0

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 19, 2017

Vexing Volatility

Low volatility is vexing as a timing tool - just look at 1995 and 2007.#SP500#VIX pic.twitter.com/Hl8vhYZXVV

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 18, 2017

Quits and Hires

The rates of job quitting and job hiring have disconnected.

Peak Divergence can't be far off. Not good. pic.twitter.com/tHij8R69c1

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 16, 2017

Uncorrelating Russell update

Update of Art Cashin's excellent observation of SP500 weakness back at 2375, originally charted in my March 13th tweet @BobPisani@CNBC pic.twitter.com/5ymml60vKq

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 15, 2017

Equity Risk Premium, part 4

The unique era of chronic rate reductions produced a unique era of bubble valuation on the 150-year ERP chart. Both those eras have ended. pic.twitter.com/bURN9EksGg

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 14, 2017

Equity Risk Premium, part 3

Equity Risk Premium, part 3

The Daily ERP chart makes the March 2017 peak at SP500 = 2400 look like a sell point pic.twitter.com/2LZZW132QB

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 13, 2017

Equity Risk Premium, part 2

Equity Risk Premium, part 2

The ERP is thought of as an oscillator signal, but you're better off taking note of its trends. pic.twitter.com/lPIlCb83NF

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 12, 2017

Equity Risk Premium, part 1

Equity Risk Premium, part 1

Redheads: "Redheads are the best shampoo models"

The Fed: "ERP is the best stock valuation model" pic.twitter.com/RONAoLZAZh

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 11, 2017

Fed Valuations

The Fed recently warned of high stock valuations, but their track record when doing so is not exactly trade-able#stocks pic.twitter.com/iWdLQDLAH2

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 9, 2017

1999 Party

Per our gov't we actually did party like it was 1999. And unlike other real per person charts, alcohol regained its uptrend after 2008. fyi pic.twitter.com/vwieKRYzrK

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 7, 2017

The New Normal: Cognitive Dissonance

The New Normal: Cognitive Dissonance pic.twitter.com/vJ6hCtJtQS

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 6, 2017

Industrial Production

Our current mass-eschewing of stock fundamentals is evident in this US Production Index per capita chart.#stocks#fundamentalsareforlosers pic.twitter.com/yaNtYe2aGM

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 4, 2017
Leading Index of the US

The Leading Index of the US shows why the Fed is loathe to hike, as we're in a 30-month downtrend despite ultra-low rates. Ouch. pic.twitter.com/JSfiqODHAU

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 3, 2017
Car Sales

2016 auto sales: bear rally, or new life for an old bull? You decide. pic.twitter.com/sWktJ3js2t

— John Alexander (@MacroCharting) April 2, 2017



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